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China's Economic Slowdown - August 2023

1. China's growth has been slower than most in recent years. Among the Emerging Markets, only Indonesia has recorded slower growth than China.

2. The difference is even more striking when compared to developed countries.

3. There is concern that China could suffer a crisis similar to the 1997 Asian crisis. If you look solely at growth, China's situation resembles that of South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, and Brazil.

4. However, in that period, liquidity was also weaker across the board.

5. That is not the case with China from 2020 to 2023.

6. EM's discipline in managing inflation, as opposed to the US and Europe's lack of discipline, has created a liquidity gap that benefits EM. China is leading the pack.

7. If Powell and Biden are successful in avoiding a recession, China will have its lion's roar. To harm China, a massive recession needs to be induced in the US.

It looks like Beijing is playing Vivaldi's The Four Seasons- Winter-3 fuckin' loud.

Source: Refinitiv and H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e's Calculations

Important Disclosure This information is current only as of the printing date and provides and views as of the date of writing. We have no obligation to update this information. Actual performance may differ from what is shown here and the views expressed are subject to change without notice. We may have a significant financial interest in the positions and securities discussed.

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